The Thanksgiving Table Meets Climate Risk: Sweet Potatoes and Cranberries in 2025

This Thanksgiving, two of the season’s most recognizable ingredients—sweet potatoes and cranberries—tell a deeper story about climate, supply, and resilience. What appears to be a year of relative abundance at the retail level masks growing pressure beneath the surface. Our Helios Horizon data indicate that both crops are navigating climate-driven volatility, although the impacts manifest differently across regions and supply chains.

Sweet potatoes, in particular, are showing early signs of price firmness. Helios Horizon data places the global average at $1.54 per kilogram, about 1.15% above historical averages, with projections rising to $1.64/kg in 2025—roughly 9% above long-term norms. At the peak of the harvest season, prices can reach up to $1.76/kg, reflecting tighter supply and consistent demand. On-the-ground reports help explain why. In Mississippi—one of the U.S.’s key producing states—some fields endured 70 or more rainfall-free days this summer, producing smaller roots and reducing yields per acre. Extension reports flagged this dry spell in October, while USDA shipping-point data from North Carolina lists orange-type sweet potatoes at roughly $1.00–$1.27/kg, underscoring how tighter pack-outs and higher grade costs are already in motion.

Interestingly, Helios Horizon’s seasonality graph shows a sharp price peak in late August through September 2025—a moment when wholesale values briefly jumped above $2.20/kg. That surge wasn’t random. It reflected a perfect storm of short supply and delayed harvests. The 2024 North Carolina crop had already been weakened by multiple tropical systems that cut production by as much as 25–30%, leaving little carryover inventory heading into 2025. Then, Mississippi’s record dry stretch further reduced early-season root size, creating a shortage of premium-grade #1s just as processors and retailers were ramping up pre-holiday procurement. The result was a short-lived but sharp spike as buyers competed for limited, high-quality volumes—an “old-crop gap meets new-crop delay” that normalized once the 2025 harvest gained momentum in October.

Figure 1. Sweet Potato Price Seasonality (U.S., 2024–2026)

Across major sweet potato–producing regions, Helios Horizon data points to an increasingly erratic climate pattern shaping the 2025–2026 outlook. In the United States, drought dominates the risk landscape—especially through late summer and early fall—driving more than 40% of total risk days in key production zones like Mississippi and North Carolina. This extended dryness mirrors what growers have already experienced on the ground, translating into smaller roots and lower yields. 

Figure 2. South Africa – Risk Days by Type of Risk (2026)

Moving south, South Africa faces the opposite challenge: a dry start to 2026 followed by intense rainfall from March through May, when “too wet” conditions make up nearly all predicted risk days—conditions that could waterlog soils and complicate exports. In Egypt, volatility takes the form of alternating wet and dry extremes, with January 2026 projected as the riskiest month due to back-to-back flooding and drying cycles in the Nile Delta, a critical export corridor to the EU and UK.

Figure 3. Nigeria – Risk Days by Type of Risk (2025/2026)

Meanwhile, Nigeria remains exposed to compounding drought and heat risks, with both peaking in the early 2026 planting season and threatening slip survival, tuber bulking, and post-harvest shelf life. Taken together, these regional shifts signal one shared reality: climate instability is now a year-round risk driver for global sweet potato supply and pricing.

Though retail shoppers may not feel a dramatic squeeze this Thanksgiving thanks to shell-game pricing and promotions, the larger story runs deeper. Processors and exporters are already absorbing tighter pack-outs and smaller tubers. Margins are under pressure. Looking ahead, if U.S. drought continues into next summer or Egypt’s export fields run into storms, those premium sizes will cost noticeably more.

On the cranberry front, the story is more subtle but no less significant. The U.S. 2025 crop is projected at around 8.1 million barrels, down about 9% year over year, with Wisconsin—the heart of production—falling from around 6 million to just over 5 million barrels. That decline, combined with growing transport costs, compresses supply heading into peak holiday demand. It’s a convergence of climate and logistics: fewer berries, costlier hauling, and less room for supply chain slack.

Figure 4. Cranberries – U.S. Risk Days by Type of Risk (2025)

Cranberries were especially vulnerable to weather variability in 2025. While late-spring frosts still posed a threat early in the season, Helios Horizon data showed those cold-related risks declined sharply heading into summer, replaced by a steady rise in drought conditions through late summer and fall. By October and November, “too dry” days accounted for more than half of all modeled climate risks across key producing regions, and that cycle will likely repeat itself in 2026. That shift made it increasingly difficult for growers to maintain the flooded bog conditions needed for irrigation, pest control, and efficient harvesting. Combined with aging bog infrastructure and warmer autumns reported in Wisconsin and New England, the drier season constrained yields and quality. By the time the holiday season arrived, processors were already facing tighter inventories—pushing modest but noticeable price increases for sauces, juices, and frozen cranberry products.

Together, these two commodities illustrate the quiet complexity behind the Thanksgiving table. Shoppers may not face sticker shock this year—but supply chain actors are already bracing. For sweet potatoes, the story is rising prices underpinned by drought, variable rainfall, and global supply risk. For cranberries, it’s a tighter supply shaped by weather extremes and logistics costs, with likely downstream price pressure. Both reflect a broader reality: agricultural markets today are being reshaped not by single spectacular disasters, but by persistent regional stress patterns that build quietly over time.

In short: Thanksgiving 2025 may feel familiar at the dinner table—but the underlying signals matter. The early warning signs visible in Helios Horizon data show that climate nuance, not crisis, is what drives tomorrow’s price volatility. Understanding those nuances today gives producers, retailers, and policymakers the foresight to protect tomorrow’s harvests—and by extension, next year’s holiday tables. If this season taught us anything, it’s that climate signals are easiest to manage when you can see them coming. Want to see how it works in real time? Request a quick demo and learn how predictive climate insight can make your supply chain just a little more resilient before the next holiday season.