Climate Pressures Leave Cherry Harvest Well Below Average
Turkey, the world’s leading cherry exporter, is closing out one of its most difficult seasons in recent memory. Severe frost in spring wiped out large portions of the crop, and persistent drought has devastated many of the surviving orchards. Helios risk forecasts show a “Poor” season climate risk rating, with very high risk scores still present across key regions such as Isparta and Bursa as harvest wraps up. With only a short time left in the season, yields are already well below average, fruit quality is inconsistent, and buyers are paying higher prices to secure a limited supply.
Past: Frost Damage and Dry Winter Weakened Orchards
The season’s difficulties began early. In April, unexpected frosts hit key cherry-growing regions including Manisa, Konya, Afyon, and Isparta. Temperatures plunged as low as –15 °C, burning blossoms and causing widespread yield losses. Government estimates reported over 20 billion TL in damages, with some orchards losing up to 70% of their expected crop. On top of that, a dry winter left soil moisture below average in many areas, making recovery slow and uneven.
Present: Limited Supply and Rising Prices
By late July, supply constraints are clear in Turkish markets and export channels. Early-season cherries were scarce, and mid-season varieties are performing well below average yields, particularly in Bursa and Central Anatolia. Growers report smaller fruit size and inconsistent quality due to water stress. Prices are running 15–20% higher than last year, with premium export varieties fetching record highs in wholesale markets. Even with some unaffected orchards, total national output is tracking 40–60% lower than a typical year.
Future: High Risk Persists Through Final Harvest Window
Helios climate models indicate very high risk scores for cherries across Turkey during the remaining harvest window, with overlapping risk factors, mainly drought stress and upcoming heat spikes, threatening final yields and fruit quality.
Nationwide Outlook: As Turkey enters the final weeks of its cherry harvest, Helios forecasts still show a Poor climate risk rating, mainly due to the ongoing lack of rainfall in key producing areas. Orchards are heading into harvest under significant water stress, which is already evident in fruit sizing and overall yield potential. With only limited rain forecast through mid-August, there’s little chance for orchards to regain lost ground before the season ends. Growers across western and central Turkey report that even healthy-looking trees are producing fewer, smaller cherries this year, suggesting that final national output will remain well below average despite an early push to bring fruit to market.
Figure 1:High-risk days remain widespread through early August, signaling continued drought pressure on cherries during the peak harvest period.
Isparta: Isparta’s orchards face very high risk scores going into harvest, driven by expected heat spikes and minimal rainfall. Forecasts show temperatures climbing above 100°F in mid-August, just as late-season cherries are being picked. This heat accelerates ripening and can cause premature softening, making it harder to maintain fruit quality during sorting and transport. The lack of water this close to harvest is also limiting final fruit size, especially for premium varieties destined for export. Producers in the region are bracing for reduced tonnage and tighter selection for high-quality grades.
Figure 2: Projected heatwave in Isparta overlaps with late-season picking, threatening fruit firmness and quality during harvest.
Bursa: In Bursa, where harvest is already underway, drought stress continues to weigh on final volumes. With rainfall running 70% below normal and irrigation supplies stretched thin, trees are not filling out cherries to their usual size. Processors and buyers are reporting a high share of small, less marketable fruit coming off the trees, while total tonnage per hectare remains significantly below expectations. With no heavy rain forecast before the end of the season, Bursa’s harvest is likely to close well under its typical output, forcing some exporters to scale back shipments to Europe.
Figure 3: Precipitation deficits in Bursa show no late-season recovery, leaving harvest volumes below normal as the season wraps up.
Conclusion: A Weak Finish to a Difficult Cherry Season
Turkey’s 2025 cherry season is closing out as one of the weakest in the past decade. Early frost destroyed a significant share of the crop, and persistent drought has left surviving orchards unable to produce normal fruit size or yields. With only two weeks left in the season, Helios data continues to show a Poor climate risk rating and very high risk scores across key regions such as Isparta and Bursa. Harvest is underway, but the damage has already been done—final tonnage is well below average, fruit quality is inconsistent, and prices remain elevated as buyers compete for limited supply. With no late-season rainfall in sight, Turkey’s position as a top cherry exporter is taking a hit this year, leaving both domestic and international markets short on volume and high on uncertainty.
