How effective is our platform at predicting the price of soft commodities? In this blog post, we tested the predictiveness of Helios’ climate risk signals against Corn prices, to identify the optimal long-only trading strategy.

In this blog post, we tested the predictiveness of Helios’ climate risk signals against Cocoa prices to identify the optimal long-only trading strategy. Helios risk signals are leading indicators for price - the higher the risk, the more likely it is that prices will rise (i.e., a higher climate risk signals a higher likelihood of crop disruptions).

Helios notified users of an upcoming price increase in corn three weeks before the media reported it, and prices increased, showcasing the ability to predict supply chain disruptions and price fluctuations.

Helios AI climate risk signals are extremely predictive of major agricultural commodity prices and have been proven very profitable over a 10-year backtest.

To assess the effectiveness of our platform, we conducted a five-year backtesting analysis of disruptions affecting three different commodity types to answer one key question: How well did Helios detect major disruptions affecting these commodities worldwide? Our analysis revealed that Helios successfully detected 91% of agricultural supply chain disruptions over the past five years.

Maijan, Peru, faced serious disruptions in their asparagus supply over the summer of 2024 due to drought brought on by El Niño circumstances. Helios platform users were immediately informed about the disruption, three months before the media reported it online.

Helios assisted customers in recognizing the disruption of Mexican lemons beginning in November 2023, ten months before lemon prices increased by 50% and eight months before the media reported on the issue.

Helios helped customers identify the Peruvian avocado disruption four months before prices skyrocketed, showcasing the ability to predict supply chain disruptions before the rest of the industry.

Unexpected frost-like temperatures threatened flowering apricot trees from late November to early spring. Helios detected this anomaly five months prior to media reports, allowing users to secure alternative suppliers before a 60% price surge.

In Brest, France, the 2023 carrot harvest faced severe challenges due to adverse weather conditions. Helios users were immediately alerted of the high-risk situation, allowing them to modify their orders and obtain new contracts to ensure product quality.