Helios Identified Mexican Lemon Disruption Months Before Harvest

At a glance: Helios assisted customers in recognizing the disruption of Mexican lemons beginning in November 2023, ten months before lemon prices increased by 50% and eight months before the media reported on the issue.

What happened?

Michoacán, Mexico, faced significant disruptions in its lemon supply due to drought throughout the 2023/2024 season, which caused a drop in production and exports. From November 2023 to August 2024, lemon prices surged from $0.90 to $1.66—a nearly 50% increase. To make matters worse, the available supply heavily leaned towards large-sized lemons, creating issues for suppliers specifically looking for smaller to mid-sized lemons.

How Helios Helped

As early as November 2023, our platform identified the growing risks across the Mexican market. Helios spotted the drought-like conditions in Michoacán starting in November 2023, ten months before prices went up by 50% in August 2024 and eight months before the media reported the disruption.

In the graph of precipitation levels in Michoacán below, you can see that it flags the beginning of a deviation of rainfall from historical levels, 27.4 inches lower than usual. Despite a tropical storm bringing historical levels back to normal in February 2024, periods of drought continued all the way into June. Helios users were informed of the drought beginning in November and were able to make adjustments to their supply arrangements and nail down price agreements before the large jump in lemon prices.