Helios Forecasted Major Avocado Shortage in Peru, Spotting Extreme Weather Risks Early
At a glance: Helios helped customers identify the Peruvian avocado disruption four months before prices skyrocketed, showcasing the ability to predict supply chain disruptions before the rest of the industry.
What happened?
The avocado harvest in Piura, Peru, faced significant challenges in 2024 due to heavy rainfall from El Niño. The situation is even worse than anticipated—this year, shipments are down to approximately 468,000 tons, reflecting a 16% decline compared to last year. With no new land available for planting, the weather is now the primary factor affecting production. Consequently, prices have surged dramatically, rising by 40% to 50% compared to last year, four months before the media caught it. Avocados that previously cost around $2.20 to $2.50 per kilogram are now priced between $3.10 and $3.50. In short, your guacamole just became a lot more expensive!
How Helios Helped
Helios first detected a deviation in precipitation levels from historical averages in January 2024. Heavy storms in February brought an additional 10.47 inches of precipitation, well exceeding typical water levels for this time of the season. Helios users were notified about flooding risks immediately, one month before it was widely reported by the media. This gave our users a critical advantage over their competitors because they had additional time to identify alternative suppliers and avoid the inevitable supplier disruption. It also allowed them to lock in prices ahead of the 50% price spike.
