Helios Global Commodity Report Saved Libby's 15% on Mandarin Purchase
“Thanks to Helios AI’s platform, we were able to predict an increase in mandarin prices six weeks before the market and buy a year’s worth of supply from our partners—saving us 15%!”
Background and Challenge
Libby’s, a leading brand known for its canned fruits and vegetables, has been a trusted name in the food industry for over 150 years. With a commitment to deliver high-quality products, Libby’s faced challenges in consistently sourcing fruits and vegetables amid changing climate patterns. As the global food supply chain becomes increasingly volatile, Libby’s procurement team partnered with Helios to leverage our predictive tools and forecasts to ensure a stable supply of products at a reasonable price.
What happened?
Libby’s received our August 2024 report, which forecasted significant rainfall in China for mandarins. They were trying to decide how much supply they should purchase (1 year’s worth or much less) as well as when they should purchase - to buy early/now due to the risk, or in a few months, when they would require a purchase regardless of pricing.
Leveraging CommodiTrackTM
Libby’s procurement team then verified the climate risk on their custom CommodiTrackTM dashboard. They wanted to better understand the severity of the climate risk and exactly which regions in China were going to be impacted.
How Libby’s saved 15%
Once they confirmed the risk, they knew that the rainfall would impact the overall harvest and likely increase prices. They used this information to purchase 12 months of their Chinese Mandarin supply, earlier than they had originally planned. Six weeks later, when they would have purchased, the price of mandarins had gone up by 15%.
Impact
The decision to act early paid off significantly. Six weeks after Libby’s bulk purchase, mandarin prices soared by 15% due to supply shortages caused by the excessive rainfall. Thanks to Helios’ proactive analysis, Libby’s saved millions of dollars and maintained a stable product supply, ensuring their competitive edge in the market.
Chris Derose, President of Libby’s, stated:
"Thanks to Helios AI’s platform, we were able to predict an increase in mandarin prices six weeks before the market and buy a year’s worth of supply from our partners—saving us 15%!"
Figure 1 (Guilin): A Major Mandarin Supplier Facing Unprecedented Rainfall
In early August 2024, Helios’ predictive tools identified that Guilin was expected to face extreme rainfall over a six-week period. The forecast showed cumulative rainfall exceeding 75 inches, far above the historical average. Total precipitation was over 60% above normal, with a sharp decline in dry days. Heavy rain events nearly tripled, leading to prolonged wet conditions. This presented a critical risk of crop rotting and delayed growth, particularly for mandarins, as the peak harvest season approached.
Figure 2 (Liuzhou): Compounding Risks from Heavy Rainfall
Similarly, in August 2024, Helios highlighted Liuzhou as another high-risk region. Over the same six-week window, rainfall in Liuzhou was predicted to exceed historical norms by more than 20 inches. The heavy precipitation, concentrated during this short period, threatened to damage the mandarin crops and escalate prices due to supply shortages. Helios’ analysis allowed Libby’s to mitigate these risks by securing their supply early, before the harvest season disruptions materialized.
