Plenty of Pumpkins This Season… But What About Later?
Fall is synonymous with pumpkins– from lattes to pies, or hayrides and Halloween displays. They are more than just produce, but a seasonal icon infused in autumn traditions. According to a recent report in FreshPlaza, the Pacific Northwest pumpkin harvest of 2025 is off to a strong start, with growers optimistic about both the quality and supply of the vegetable. But while this year's crop offers lots to celebrate, the end of this pumpkin season is cause for concern.
The update highlights encouraging news from farmers in Oregon and Washington. They report healthy vines and a strong demand from local markets, particularly as agritourism and farm-stand sales hit a peak each fall. Pumpkins are hitting the market on schedule, with the right color, size, and firmness– all signs of a good quality harvest. The successful harvest came after significant concern and uncertainty due to notable weather fluctuations earlier in the year that caused wariness for planting and pollination. But despite the challenges, farmers are delivering pumpkins just in time for Halloween. Yet, behind all the success lies a growing concern: the later part of the season doesn’t look nearly as stable. Climate volatility threatens to make consistency harder to count on as fall goes on.
Figure 1. United States weighted climate risk for pumpkins, squash, and gourds in 2025 compared to the 10-year historical average. The black line shows current risk levels, while the dotted line represents predicted risk for the rest of the season. The blue line reflects the 10-year baseline. Risk spikes in late October and November are well above historical norms, signaling that the end of the season may face more volatility, with potential impacts on late pumpkin harvests and availability.
The Helios dashboard tells the story: while the start of the 2025 season is strong, climate risks rise steeply heading into late October and November, mainly due to excessive rain, which takes a toll on harvest. These risk spikes mean later-harvested pumpkins could face more weather stress and storage issues, tightening late supply. For shoppers, that translates into a familiar story– shelves that are well stocked now might not look the same come Thanksgiving week. If you want the best pumpkins for carving, decorating, or pies, it’s wise to buy them early rather than wait.
Pumpkins carry more than economic weight– they hold cultural significance tied to fall rituals, from jack-o’-lanterns to holiday desserts. Climate change threatens not only agriculture but also the traditions that make the season feel whole. Pumpkins are turning into a “barometer crop,” showing how quickly shifting risks ripple into both food supply and culture.
This year’s early bounty is worth celebrating, but it comes with a reminder: the second half of the season may not look as good. If pumpkins are part of your fall plans, now’s the time to stock up, enjoy the abundance, and recognize that climate change is reshaping even our most cherished traditions.
