Berries, Citrus, and the Big Summer Price Swings

As summer rolls in, farmers’ markets, grocery shelves, and kitchen tables around the country begin to fill with the season’s brightest bounty: juicy berries, crisp lettuce, zesty citrus, and garden-fresh veggies. But behind this cheerful cornucopia, food prices are telling a more complex story.

This year, some of the most beloved summer fruits and vegetables, like oranges, strawberries, blueberries, avocados, tomatoes, and bell peppers, are at the center of major price shifts driven by climate disruptions, international trade dynamics, and harvest challenges.

Summer Favorites Facing Price Spikes

Few fruits scream summer like citrus and berries. But in 2025, they're also leading the list of produce with surging prices. Orange juice in the U.S. has more than doubled in cost since 2020, now topping $4.50 for a 12-ounce bottle, thanks to a severe drop in orange production caused by citrus greening disease, drought, and hurricane damage in Brazil and Florida (USDA ERS, 2025). Lemon and lime yields have also dropped in Mexico and Spain, adding further pressure on citrus prices.

Berries, another summer staple, are facing similar strain. European berry crops were hit hard by spring frosts in Germany and Poland, while water cuts in California's Central Valley have hindered U.S. production. As a result, retail berry prices have jumped by 8–12% since last year.

On May 8, 2025, Tarnów, Poland, a key cherry-growing region, recorded a below-freezing temperature of 30.1°F, confirming a damaging late spring frost during early fruit development.

Avocados, popular in summer dishes like salads to guacamole, are also climbing in price. Trade friction with Mexico and tighter border inspections are causing delays and raising costs. Prices have spiked 15% year-over-year as demand peaks in the summer months (US Foods, 2025).

Vegetables in Trouble: From India to North America

Vegetables typically provide some relief during the summer harvest season, but in 2025, weather extremes are distorting that trend. Mexico's drought-stricken vegetable farms are producing fewer cucumbers, squash, and bell peppers, with exports to the U.S. falling by nearly 18% in early 2025. That shortfall is raising North American prices and thinning store inventories. Meanwhile, flooding in southern China has disrupted the leafy greens market, while input costs like fertilizer and fuel continue to climb, inflating wholesale vegetable prices globally. In Jaipur and Kolkata, extreme heat and scarce pre-monsoon rainfall damaged tomato, eggplant, okra, and bell pepper crops. Tomato prices reached ₹100 (about $1.22) per kilogram by mid-May, double the rate from 2024, when they sold for around ₹50 (~$0.61) (Times of India, 2025).

Maximum temperatures in okra-growing regions of India consistently exceeded 100°F from April through June 2025, highlighting extreme heat risk during key crop development stages.

Salad Dressing Prices Stir Up Surprises

Though not produce itself, salad dressing often accompanies summer’s fresh bounty—and it’s quietly becoming more expensive. Leading brands have hiked prices by up to 9% in 2025, largely due to higher costs for ingredients like citrus juice and avocado oil, and increased demand for clean-label products.

Price Relief: Tomatoes, Lettuce, and Processed Picks

Still, not every item on your summer plate will break the bank. In the U.S., overall fresh vegetable prices are down 2.9% from last year, with a strong supply of lettuce and tomatoes keeping prices stable or slightly lower. A successful harvest season in California, Morocco, and Spain in late 2024 contributed to this trend (USDA ERS, 2025).

Processed fruits and vegetables, especially frozen or canned goods, are also cheaper. The USDA projects a 1% decline in their prices in 2025 as supply chains continue to normalize after pandemic-era disruptions.

Final Thoughts

In Summer 2025, fresh produce comes with mixed price tags. With berries, citrus, and avocados climbing, and tomatoes and lettuce easing up, shoppers can make the most of the season by staying flexible, informed, and ready to pivot toward local and in-season options. Tools like the Helios platform can help businesses monitor real-time weather stress, production risks, and market signals, giving them an edge when planning sourcing strategies or anticipating supply fluctuations.