Early Monsoon Season Wreaks Havoc on Indian Vegetable Crops– Prices Surge
The monsoon season on the southwest coast of India has started earlier than usual in 2025, bringing with it severe disruptions to the vegetable industry. In the Nashik district – a crucial region for producing vegetables – heavy and continual rainfall through May has damaged over 1,000 hectares of farmland. The timing of the rainfall could not have been worse, occurring during critical crop stages from flowering to harvest, and affecting crops like garlic, broccoli, and cauliflower. “The entire month of May was battered by rain,” noted Satish Patil, of the local Agricultural Produce Market Committee. Farmers have been hit hard, with many reporting significant losses to crops.
Helios had already flagged the garlic disruption well in advance. Its garlic dashboard shows an increase in risk scores during May and June of 2025. Helios detected high percentages of “too wet” risk days, especially around May 11th-25th, aligning with the heavy rainfall that has hurt vegetable crops in the southwest region.
Figure 1. Helios Garlic Climate Dashboard, showing high concentrations of “too wet” risk days in May of 2025 and the sustained weighted climate risk through its growing season. The early indication is closely aligned with the heavy rainfall that damaged crops in the southwest region.
The outcome has already had rippling effects throughout retail markets. Vegetables like spinach, dill, and fenugreek have experienced price spikes of up to 250%, going from ₹10–₹20 (12¢-23¢) to ₹30–₹70 (35¢-83¢) per bundle. Retailers struggle to keep up with demand, and consumers are feeling the change, with many changing their consumption patterns. The changes are an early indicator of a deeper impact that threatens not just household budgets, but also greater nutritional outcomes.
India's southwest region contributes significantly production of vegetables, and disruptions like these can lead to nationwide shortages. When a major vegetable-producing hub like Nashik is incapacitated, the burden spreads to areas that wouldn’t typically be affected. Things like transportation costs rise, and so does volatility across supply chains. In India, where a large amount of the population relies on affordable vegetables for nutrition, events like this inhibit dietary diversity and increase the risk of undernutrition, especially in lower-income households and those who rely on meal programs.
The heavy rains in Nashik are not an isolated event– it’s part of an increasing pattern of climate volatility that is perpetually complicating traditional agricultural calendars. Whether it’s unseasonal rainfall or heatwaves, climate-induced disruptions are starting to become the norm rather than the exception. This can be seen in India’s broccoli crop. The Helios climate change dashboard stresses this trend. It reveals that the risk is rising for upcoming broccoli seasons in India. With a historic average of 23.3%, it is expected that its climate risk to jump to about 41%.
Figure 2. Helios Broccoli Climate Change dashboard, projecting a 41% seasonal climate risk for the upcoming growing period, which is marked higher than historical averages. The dashboard signals increasing volatility in vegetable-growing conditions throughout India.
As climate volatility continues to disrupt food systems, the need for proactive and data-driven agricultural planning is more urgent than ever. Platforms like Helios, which provide predictive modeling and adaptive recommendations, could be the key to equipping farmers, companies, and policymakers to stay ahead of climate uncertainty.
Without systemic adaptation, food production not just in India, but globally, will remain mostly at the mercy of climate change. A less-than-ideal position for a world of 8.2 billion people with mouths to feed.
