Fruit, Vegetable… or Political Football? How Tariffs Are Squeezing the Tomato Trade

Tomatoes may be botanically a fruit, but in the U.S.–Mexico supply chain, they are a critical “vegetable” for procurement teams, and this summer, they’ve become a political flashpoint. In mid-July 2025, the collapse of the Tomato Suspension Agreement ended nearly thirty years of price stability in the import market and brought back a 17% U.S. tariff on fresh Mexican tomatoes.

Figure #1: August 2025’s sharp price drop (dark blue) stands out against historical trends, while the projected autumn rise follows normal seasonal patterns.

The immediate market reaction was clear. August prices fell more sharply than usual, with Helios seasonality data showing an average of $1.55 per kilogram (Figure #1), 17% below last year and under the seasonal average for the month. In past years, August dips have been modest; this year’s deeper decline points to the combined impact of market uncertainty and delayed purchasing decisions following the collapse of the agreement.

From here, prices are expected to rise into late 2025. This is not a sign that tariffs are driving costs higher, but rather the normal seasonal tightening as the peak harvest winds down and supply becomes more limited.

Helios data shows the average FOB price for all tomato varieties moving from $1.50 to $1.72 in one month and reaching $2.13 by November, a forty-two percent increase from today.

Figure #2: Grape-type tomatoes lead the projected increases, with a three-month gain of nearly 70%.

At the variety level, grape-type tomatoes are forecast to climb from $1.91 to $2.50 within a month and to $3.23 in three months, while Roma and plum types will see steadier gains. Vine ripes may dip briefly before turning upward again. Although these increases are steep, they are on trend with historical harvest cycles, and projections suggest that prices will still be lower than in recent years, potentially due to the effects of the agreement’s collapse, an exceptional growing season, or both.

The bigger unknown is what happens in December through February. Typically, prices fall sharply during that window before the next harvest. This year’s forecast suggests that a dip may not occur, mirroring a similar break from the pattern in 2023–2024. Whether this is a result of tariffs, climate shifts, or other supply factors, it signals a possible shift in how the off-season will behave.

Lower-than-average prices in August create a narrow window for buyers to lock in favorable contracts before seasonal tightening sets in. Procurement leaders should use the current softness to secure supply, but remain agile in case the expected December–February dip fails to materialize. Monitoring price, policy, and climate data together, rather than in isolation, will be key to navigating what is shaping up to be a year where tomatoes act as both a staple ingredient and a sensitive economic signal.