The Climate Behind Your Limes: Why Stable Prices Can’t Be Taken for Granted

Limes—the lemon's little brother—are a staple in many diets worldwide. Colombia is the 10th largest supplier in the world, producing about 2.29% of fresh limes globally. While the country possesses ideal conditions for the plant to thrive and currently has an ample supply, its complicated topography and its equatorial location make it vulnerable to climate variability. Colombia is prone to experiencing rainy and dry seasons; its rainy seasons are typically from March to May and September to November, but this year, the country’s rainy season is beginning earlier and more intensely, creating a riskier environment and potentially disrupting the growth and price of the fruit we all know and love.

This year's shift isn’t just anecdotal; it's measurable. Helio’s weighted climate risk graph displays Colombia's climate risk throughout 2025, compared to its historical average. As of now, the country’s risk is seen to be significantly above its historical average in the months of February and August, and is predicted to continue experiencing significant fluctuations in risk. 

Figure 1. Colombia’s climate risk throughout 2025, compared to the 10-year historical average. Risk levels (black line) have exceeded historical norms (blue line) for much of the year and are projected to fluctuate significantly through the end of 2025.

To better understand what’s causing the spikes in risk, the chart below breaks it down by type, showing when Colombia's lime-growing regions are at risk of being too dry, wet, or stressed. The months from April through August are dominated by “too dry” conditions, peaking in August. But at the beginning of September, the risk pattern shifts to “too wet,” and those conditions begin to increase. Colombia’s climate has been so volatile, that these conditions continue to go back and forth. These changes are predicted to continue through the end of the year and into the beginning of 2026 as well. While these conditions are inconvenient, they are also detrimental. The swing between extreme dryness and excessive rain can significantly disrupt the fruiting cycle of limes, affecting not only the size and flavor but also the overall long-term health of the trees and their ability to yield fruit.

Figure 2. Breakdown of climate risks affecting Colombia’s lime-growing regions in 2025 and early 2026. “Too dry” conditions dominate from April through August, followed by a shift toward “too wet” risks starting in September.

The significant fluctuations in climate not only affect the quality and health of Colombia's limes but also impact their price. The intense climate changes consequently influence the price of Colombian limes to fluctuate as well.

Figure 3. Monthly average export price of Colombian limes in 2025 (purple line), overlaid with climate risk levels (dotted line). A large price increase in late July coincides with a spike in “too dry” risk conditions. While current prices remain relatively stable, future climate shifts could introduce greater volatility.

The connection between climate volatility and price instability is clear. As seen in the chart above, the country’s lime prices in 2025 usually track with changes in climate risk. This can be seen in the month of February, when the cost of limes fell to $1.56/kg, and then underwent a 33.97% increase to $2.09/kg. This can be seen later in the year as well, where typically, the prices of limes experience a dip in July, due to an abundant supply.

But this year, the prices began to rise early due to an extended period of higher climate risk for all of June and July. After a dip in price in those months, with the cost being about $1.30/kg, the cost saw a huge increase heading into August, to about $1.73/kg (a whopping 60% higher than the $1.08 cost during the same period in 2024) due to a decline in high-quality produce during peak harvest. While prices have remained relatively stable in recent months due to good harvests, the spike in climate risk highlights the possibility of rapid changes. If extreme dryness or wet periods continue, Colombia's now ample supply could quickly tighten, creating conditions for future price instability. In other words, the concern isn’t what’s happening now—it's how quickly favorable conditions can change if climate patterns continue.

Colombia’s limes provide a stark example of how climate change is changing agriculture now, and not just in the distant future. Even when supply is looking strong and prices are low, conditions can shift rapidly, leaving producers, business partners, and consumers exposed. In a world that is becoming more shaped by unsustainable weather patterns, it's not just about whether crops can grow—it's about whether they can grow reliably. If reliability disappears, so does our predictability in price, availability, and livelihood across the food system. Colombia’s limes may be small, but they’re trying to tell us a bigger story.